With the Oscars fast approaching this Sunday, Jay and I decided to revive our Academy Award predictions. Now, again, Jay and I both think the Academy Awards are pretty much a joke. It is rare that the film or person who should get the award actually does. The show really has much more to do with popularity, politics and marketing than actually selecting the best in any given category. That is why they have become so easy to predict. You can easily tell, for the most part, who the winner is going to be if you know how the system works. So, continuing with our tradition set from years back, Jay and I are going to predict who will win out of the nominated persons/films, as well as who should win, followed by how each of us would have it if we ran the Academy. And, because this is OUR site, we may even throw in a pick that wasn't nominated but we feel should've been!
So, here are the nominees for each category, which one we think will win, which one we think should win, and finally if we had our way who would win, even if they aren't nominated . . . .
Best Original Song
"Mystery of Love" from Call Me by Your Name (Sufjan Stevens)
"Remember Me" from Coco (Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez)
"This is Me" from The Greatest Showman (Benj Pasek & Justin Paul)
"Stand Up For Something" from Marshall (Diane Warren & Lonnie R. Lynn/Common)
"Mighty River" from Mudbound (Mary J. Blige, et. al.)
Jay's PicksWho Will Win: "Remember Me" from Coco
Who Should Win: "Mystery of Love" from Call Me By Your Name
If Jay Ran Things: Sufjan Stevens is the man, but the Academy loves Disney songs.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: "Remember Me" from Coco
Who Should Win: "Stand Up For Something" from Marshall
Matt's PicksWho Will Win: "Remember Me" from Coco
Who Should Win: "Stand Up For Something" from Marshall
If Matt Ran Things: Just one of the categories which is so sorely lacking of competition this year that a bunch of forgettable songs make the
cut. I'd love to see a song like "Stand Up For Something" win, but, as Jay said, the Academy loves it some Disney songs!
Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
Who Should Win: Logan
If Jay Ran Things: I'm kidding, I just wanted to piss Matt off by saying Logan, a movie he has often derided. It's enough that it got nominated and I'm sure he's on fire over that one. Call Me By Your Name deserves to really win here.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Call Me by Your Name
Who Should Win: Stronger
Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Should Win: The Big Sick
If Jay Ran Things: The Big Sick was one of my favorite films of last year. A funny and moving true-life story about how comedian Kamail Nanjiani met his wife, Emily (Zoe Kazan), and stayed by her side while she was in medically induced coma. It won't win, though.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Should Win: Wind River
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Should Win: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
cut. I'd love to see a song like "Stand Up For Something" win, but, as Jay said, the Academy loves it some Disney songs!
Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Jay's Picks
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| Logan |
Who Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
Who Should Win: Logan
If Jay Ran Things: I'm kidding, I just wanted to piss Matt off by saying Logan, a movie he has often derided. It's enough that it got nominated and I'm sure he's on fire over that one. Call Me By Your Name deserves to really win here.
 |
| Stronger |
Who Will Win: Call Me by Your Name
Who Should Win: Stronger
If Matt Ran Things: Jay is right about Logan. Nominating a movie such as Logan -- a film filled with nothing but lazy writing -- for this category simply proves my point that the Academy is losing its credibility. If they are going to nominate Logan, they should also have listed as the accredited writers A.B. Guthrie Jr., Jack Sher, and novelist Jack Schaefer -- they are the writers of the 1953 film Shane. Since Logan takes its pivotal dialogue from the classic Western, those writers should be nominated as well (just like when a rapper uses a significant piece of music and/or lyrics from another song, those other songwriters whose music is being sampled get a credit in the rap song's writing credits). But I digress. To me, Stronger, based on the book and true story of Jeff Bauman and his survival of the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing, beats out all of these nominees!
Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
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| The Big Sick |
Who Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Should Win: The Big Sick
If Jay Ran Things: The Big Sick was one of my favorite films of last year. A funny and moving true-life story about how comedian Kamail Nanjiani met his wife, Emily (Zoe Kazan), and stayed by her side while she was in medically induced coma. It won't win, though.
Matt's Picks
 |
| Wind River |
Who Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Should Win: Wind River
If Matt Ran Things: If a film like Three Billboards gets nominated, then Taylor Sheridan's Wind River definitely should have been nominated ... and should've gotten the win! It's a top crime drama with stellar performances and goes into territory not seen lately in cinema: the lives of Native Americans and the wilds of Wyoming.
Best Animated Feature
Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Coco
Who Should Win: The Breadwinner
If Jay Ran Things: From the co-director of the brilliant Secret of the Kells, Nora Twomey's The
Breadwinner is a gorgeous piece of animation that tells the moving story of an Afghani girl who disguises herself as a boy to provide for her family. But, it's Pixar, so Coco will win.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Coco
Who Should Win: The Breadwinner
Best Animated Feature
Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Coco
Who Should Win: The Breadwinner
If Jay Ran Things: From the co-director of the brilliant Secret of the Kells, Nora Twomey's The
 |
| The Breadwinner |
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Coco
Who Should Win: The Breadwinner
If Matt Ran Things: Again, like the best song category, not much competition released this past year, so we get Boss Baby as a nominee! I agree with Jay, the Academy loves Pixar, so, most likely, Coco will win. But it would be wonderful if The Breadwinner won. Then again, it wouldn't be a total shock.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Leslie Manville - Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Who Should Win: Allison Janney - I, Tonya
If Jay Ran Things: Janney is always fantastic in anything she is in, but here she really shines as Tonya Harding's conniving and abusive mother, LaVona.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Who Should Win: Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Leslie Manville - Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Who Should Win: Allison Janney - I, Tonya
If Jay Ran Things: Janney is always fantastic in anything she is in, but here she really shines as Tonya Harding's conniving and abusive mother, LaVona.
 |
| Allison Janney (left) as LaVona (right) |
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Who Should Win: Allison Janney - I, Tonya
If Matt Ran Things: Janney has long been deserving of an Academy Award and I think this portrayal of real-life dysfunctional, emotionally abusive mother, LaVona, will get her the gold!
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson -
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer - All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Should Win: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
If Jay Ran Things: Sam Rockwell has spent the last couple of decades proving to us that he is one of the best character actors in the biz. Oscar night he will finally get some recognition for his portrayal of a racist cop who butts heads with Frances McDormand's grieving and angry Mildred.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Christopher Plummer - All the Money in the World
Who Should Win: Woody Harrelson - The Glass Castle
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson -
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer - All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jay's Picks
 |
| Sam Rockwell |
Who Should Win: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
If Jay Ran Things: Sam Rockwell has spent the last couple of decades proving to us that he is one of the best character actors in the biz. Oscar night he will finally get some recognition for his portrayal of a racist cop who butts heads with Frances McDormand's grieving and angry Mildred.
 |
| Woody Harrelson |
Who Will Win: Christopher Plummer - All the Money in the World
Who Should Win: Woody Harrelson - The Glass Castle
If Matt Ran Things: This is an example of a fine actor being nominated for the wrong role. Woody Harrelson is one of the most underrated actors today, but his performance in The Glass Castle, as the main character's alcoholic, eccentric father, adapted from Jeannette Walls' autobiography, is, hands down, one of the best performances of the year!
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Meryl Streep - The Post
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Should Win: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
If Jay Ran Things: Frances McDormand is a force of nature in Three Billboards .... Her uncompromising portrayal of Mildred, a mother who takes matters into her own hands when the local police fails to find the man who raped and murdered her daughter, is deserving of a second Best Actress Oscar (first was 1996's Fargo).
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Meryl Streep - The Post
Jay's Picks
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| Frances McDormand |
Who Will Win: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Should Win: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
If Jay Ran Things: Frances McDormand is a force of nature in Three Billboards .... Her uncompromising portrayal of Mildred, a mother who takes matters into her own hands when the local police fails to find the man who raped and murdered her daughter, is deserving of a second Best Actress Oscar (first was 1996's Fargo).
 |
| Brie Larson |
Who Will Win: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Should Win: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
If Matt Ran Things: I will say McDormand should win, but just barely! A VERY close second is someone who didn't even get nominated! Brie Larson should have at least been nominated for The Glass Castle! In fact, I think that film got completely snubbed! It had some of the best writing and performances this year!
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Timothee Chalamet - Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Who Should Win: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
If Jay Ran Things: I think that the Academy will do the right thing this year and give this Oscar to one of our most talented character actors. Oldman has given us so many unforgettable performances over the decades and this time he will be recognized for his transformation into British Prime Minister, Winston Churchill.
Timothee Chalamet - Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq.
 |
| Gary Oldman |
Who Will Win: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Who Should Win: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
If Jay Ran Things: I think that the Academy will do the right thing this year and give this Oscar to one of our most talented character actors. Oldman has given us so many unforgettable performances over the decades and this time he will be recognized for his transformation into British Prime Minister, Winston Churchill.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
Who Should Win: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
Who Should Win: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
If Matt Ran Things: I loved Gary Oldman's performance as Prime Minister Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour, but, unfortunately, I think the Academy will go with their darling, Daniel Day-Lewis, who is also supposedly retiring from acting. Put all that together with a period piece, a morose story about "mommy issues," and I think it's cause for Day-Lewis to earn his next (and last!?) Oscar.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread
Who Should Win: Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
If Matt Ran Things: I would love to see Christopher Nolan win this because, to me, Dunkirk used techniques with pacing and structure that these other nominees did not. Their films are great but they were also straight-forward. Dunkirk is not just some war film but an artistic piece of story. Its fragmented moments come perfectly together by film's end. Also, the film is visually stunning!
Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: The Shape of Water
Who Should Win: The Shape of Water
If Jay Ran Things: The Shape of Water is one of the most unique and beautiful love stories I have seen in years. Everything from the performances, the costumes and effects, to gorgeous production design make it truly a work of art from a man who has always made his kind of movie. Most of the time his films are pure works of art, and this is one of his best. It's just a real shame we never got to see his take on The Hobbit, which was supposed to happen before the writers' strike. I feel it would have been a much better version than the three movies that Peter Jackson delivered, unfortunately.
Who Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Should Win: The Post
If Matt Ran Things: For me, this category is only really between Dunkirk and The Post. And while most may think The Post as a somewhat political choice, I still think it is the better film. It's sometimes important for films to reflect on the current times of which we are going through. And The Post does that by exploring our country's past. It's the ultimate message of "Those who forget their history are doomed to repeat it." While The Post has no stellar, jaw-dropping acting "Oscar moments," the overall story is essential, well-done, and riveting. Its ending is one of the most sobering and ironic. But, alas, I feel Three Billboards (What is this!? A Bob Dylan Blonde on Blonde song title? j/k) will win; if it doesn't, it will be the slow, as-boring-as-The English Patient Phantom Thread.
What do you think? Were there any movies not on this year's list of nominees that got snubbed? Do you agree or disagree with our picks? Let us know in the comments!
Best Directing
Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Jordan Peele - Get Out
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
Who Should Win: Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
If Jay Ran Things: Guillermo del Toro certainly is a deserved winner here and I think he will win for his monster love story. If it were me, Denis Villeneuve would be nominated and win here for my favorite film of last year, Blade Runner 2049. Having the balls alone to take on a sequel to a monumental sci-fi movie like Ridley Scott's, Blade Runner is astounding, but to deliver the film he did is a towering achievement.
Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Jordan Peele - Get Out
 |
| Guillermo del Toro |
Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
Who Should Win: Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
If Jay Ran Things: Guillermo del Toro certainly is a deserved winner here and I think he will win for his monster love story. If it were me, Denis Villeneuve would be nominated and win here for my favorite film of last year, Blade Runner 2049. Having the balls alone to take on a sequel to a monumental sci-fi movie like Ridley Scott's, Blade Runner is astounding, but to deliver the film he did is a towering achievement.
 |
| Christopher Nolan |
Who Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread
Who Should Win: Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
If Matt Ran Things: I would love to see Christopher Nolan win this because, to me, Dunkirk used techniques with pacing and structure that these other nominees did not. Their films are great but they were also straight-forward. Dunkirk is not just some war film but an artistic piece of story. Its fragmented moments come perfectly together by film's end. Also, the film is visually stunning!
Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jay's Picks
 |
| The Shape of Water |
Who Will Win: The Shape of Water
Who Should Win: The Shape of Water
If Jay Ran Things: The Shape of Water is one of the most unique and beautiful love stories I have seen in years. Everything from the performances, the costumes and effects, to gorgeous production design make it truly a work of art from a man who has always made his kind of movie. Most of the time his films are pure works of art, and this is one of his best. It's just a real shame we never got to see his take on The Hobbit, which was supposed to happen before the writers' strike. I feel it would have been a much better version than the three movies that Peter Jackson delivered, unfortunately.
| Matt's Picks |
Who Should Win: The Post
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| The Post |
What do you think? Were there any movies not on this year's list of nominees that got snubbed? Do you agree or disagree with our picks? Let us know in the comments!
