Jay here.
With the Oscars fast approaching this Sunday, I thought it might be fun to get Matt involved and pick our winners, along with sharing our personal favorites and who would win if we were running the show. Now, Matt and I both think the Academy Awards are pretty much a joke. It is more rare that the film or person who should get the award actually does. The show really has much more to do with popularity, politics and marketing than actually selecting the best in any given category. That is why they have become so easy to predict. You can easily tell, for the most part, who the winner is going to be if you know how the system works.
So, here are the nominees for each category, which one we think will win, which one we think should win, and finally if we had our way who would win, even if they aren't nominated . . . .
Best Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
 |
| Gravity |
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Gravity
Who Should Win: Gravity
If Jay Ran Things: Gravity would still win. It is a technological marvel that advanced the medium. It deserves to be recognized for its innovations.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Gravity
Who Should Win: Gravity
If Matt Ran Things: The only reason I think Gravity will win is because they had to use a s*@%load of special effects for this film and because it is supposed to be a movie based in reality, I think it will get it.
Best Foreign Film
 |
| The Hunt |
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Missing Picture
Omar
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: The Great Beauty
Who Should Win : The Hunt
If Jay Ran Things: The Great Beauty won the Golden Globe, so it is a safe bet to think the Fellini-esque picture will take home the prize. For me, though, The Hunt was so compelling and full of suspense. It had one of the best performances of the year from Mads Mikkelson. It should be the winner, and could pull an upset. Funny, was the Academy too scared to nominate Blue is the Warmest Color? The Cannes winner was shut out . . . .
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: N/A
Who Should Win: N/A
If Matt Ran Things: N/A
 |
| Stories We Tell |
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet From Stardom
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: The Act of Killing
Who Should Win: The Act of Killing
If Jay Ran Things: To be fair I've only seen three of the nominated docs (The Act of Killing, Dirty Wars, and The Square) but if I had it my way two others would be nominated here - Stories We Tell and Blackfish - with Stories We Tell taking home the Oscar. Sarah Polley's very personal documentary was ignored for unfathomable reasons. Oh yeah, the Academy always screws up this category!!
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: N/A
 |
| Blackfish |
If Matt Ran Things: It didn't even get nominated but I'm putting in here what I think should win. Blackfish, the documentary by Gabriela Cowperthwaite about killer whales and SeaWorld's mistreatment of the animals. This should be mandatory viewing for everyone ... especially before making that "super special trip to SeaWorld!"
Best Original Song
"Happy" from Despicable Me 2 (Pharrell Williams)
"Let it Go" from Frozen (Idina Menzel; Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez)
"The Moon Song" from Her (Karen O)
"Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (U2)
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: "Let it Go"
Who Should Win: "Let it Go"
If Jay Ran Things: I think "Let it Go" deserves the win. There really wasn't a good amount of quality songs to choose from this year.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: "Let it Go"
Who Should Win: "Let it Go"
If Matt Ran Things: No one can beat Menzel's vocals! Plus, the song lends perfectly to the film and what the film's character Elsa is going through. I would have liked to have seen Oscar Isaac and Marcus Mumford (of Mumford & Sons) at least be nominated for "Fare Thee Well (Dink's Song)" from Inside Llewyn Davis, but I guess it wasn't really considered "original" because of its origins from the 18th century English folk ballad "Fare Thee Well."
Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Who Should Win: Before Midnight
If Jay Ran Things: Destin Cretton would be nominated and win for his brilliant film, Short Term 12. Because he adapted it from a shorter version of the same movie he made before, I'm betting it would be slotted in this category.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: 12 Years a Slave Who Should Win: Captain Phillips
If Matt Ran Things: 12 Years was a great film that is long overdue, but Captain Phillips left me in jaw-dropping awe!
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: American Hustle
Who Should Win: Her
If Jay Ran Things: Spike Jonze would win for his brilliant screenplay for Her, one of my favorite films of the year. He could pull out a win if the Academy decides to reward him here since there's no chance his movie will win Best Picture.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Who Should Win: Her
If Matt Ran Things: Is Her the best story I've seen in this category? Of course! Will it win? Most likely, not. Even though the story behind Her is something the media and you and your friends have played with in passing conversation, it's still original. But ... no matter. Unfortunately, I think Dallas Buyers Club will win. Should it win for "Best ORIGINAL Screenplay?" No. Wanna know why? It's not "original" by Academy standards and certainly not by my standards -- and yet it still gets nominated! It's not considered "original" because the movie is 1) based on a true story, 2) the story was written already as a 1992 feature in The Dallas Morning News, and 3) screenwriter Craig Borten had access to the real-life Ron Woodroof's personal journals so most of the material was previously written.
Best Animated Feature
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Frozen
Who Should Win: The Wind Rises
If Jay Ran Things: If you read my review of Hayao Miyazaki's final epic then you know I'm a fan. It really doesn't matter, though, because the blockbuster popularity of Disney's Frozen will win out. It is kind of a joke when you consider The Wind Rises, with its traditionally drawn animation, is like watching art come alive on the screen paired with a touching love story. And Frozen, even though I'm sure it has a good message, is going to win because it is more popular and accessible.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Frozen
Who Should Win: Frozen
If Matt Ran Things: Yes, Frozen is more than just a love story! And that's why I think it should win. Plus, you can't beat the music and the fact that both kids and adults can watch it and be pleasantly entertained. I have to say I was impressed.
Best Cinematography
The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Gravity
Who Should Win: Gravity
If Jay Ran Things: The most talented and daring cinematographer working today, Emmanuel Lubezki, should win the Oscar for his jaw-dropping work in Gravity. All the other nominees, as talented as they are, might as well not show up.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Gravity
Who Should Win: Prisoners
If Matt Ran Things: Prisoners should have gotten a lot more nominations, but Gravity will win because it's the "Academy darling" this year.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts - August: Osage County
June Squibb - Nebraska
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Who Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o
If Jay Ran Things: Nyong'o is so good in her role as the abused slave girl, Patsey. She manages to upstage everyone in each scene she's in as her character desperately tries to avoid the growing menace of her master, played by Michael Fassbander and his jealous wife, played by Sarah Paulson.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Who Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o
If Matt Ran Things: I LOVE Jennifer Lawrence, who has already been given the unfortunate, pretentious title of "America's sweetheart" (by the press; the actual Lawrence, I think, would roll her eyes at the title), but this credit should be given where credit is OBVIOUSLY due! Bravo, Ms. Nyong'o!
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper - American Hustle
Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Jared Leto
Who Should Win: Michael Fassbender
If Jay Ran Things: I find it ridiculous that Jared Leto is going to win this Oscar over a performance like Fassbender's which is really terrifying and unhinged. He's just too detestable and evil for Academy voters to choose him, though.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Jared Leto
Who Should Win: Michael Fassbender
If Matt Ran Things: Sorry, there are rules to winning an Academy award. Take a particular role, and if you do well enough, you're a shoo-in! Hmmmm .... plantation slave owner .... or .... HIV-positive transgender woman? I wonder who will win?
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Amy Adams - American Hustle
Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock - Gravity
Judi Dench - Philomena
Meryl Streep - August: Osage County
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Who Should Win: Cannot believe I'd ever say this, but . . . . . Sandra Bullock
If Jay Ran Things: Both Julie Delpy (Before Midnight) and Brie Larson (Short Term 12) would be nominated here with Larson winning. I know it is a stretch but her performance as Grace was my favorite of the year.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Who Should Win: Brie Larson (Short Term 12)
If Matt Ran Things: I'm breaking the rules and picking my own winner because ... it says "If Matt Ran Things!" Unfortunately, either Blanchett or Bullock will win. But they didn't really "wow" me! As far as I'm concerned, Brie Larson packed more emotional punch in her performance in Short Term 12 than both of those nominees combined. But it's not just that. Larson was relatable and yet not, taking the viewer into her world they think they know ... until her little world turns tables on her and the audience. Great film!
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale - American Hustle
Bruce Dern - Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
Chweitel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
Who Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
If Jay Ran Things: Leonardo Dicaprio gives the best performance of his career as Jordan Belfort, the reprehensible, greedy, scoundrel of Martin Scorsese's epic of excess. McConaughey's performance was more "feel-good" so he will win over the Academy who loves an afflicted character who fights the odds. Also, I would have nominated Mads Mikkelson as well for his role in The Hunt. But, alas, there was no chance . . . .
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
Who Should Win: Hugh Jackman (Prisoners)
If Matt Ran Things: Again, breaking the rules. It will be no surprise when McConaughey's name is called. And I would pick DiCaprio for "who should win" ... if he were nominated for the right movie (sorry, but his performance in The Great Gatsby far outweighed his role in Wolf when it comes to emotional depth and substance)! Hugh Jackman should have been nominated ... especially instead of Bruce Dern -- but, Dern gets what I call, the "sympathy" nomination/win (Dern's performance was not impressive nor mesmerizing). Jackman's role as a father blinded by vengeance far outweighs most of those listed here -- with the exception of Chweitel Ejiofor (if I had to pick from the normal nominee list, it would be Ejiofor).
Best Director
David O. Russell - American Hustle
Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
Alexander Payne - Nebraska
Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese - The Wolf of Wall Street
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron
If Jay Ran Things: Look, I know some of you out there don't get it, but Cuaron's work on Gravity is the work of a master filmmaker at the top of his game. I am disappointed Spike Jonze was not nominated here for Her. I would have kicked Payne out for Jonze. Also, Richard Linklater might have found his way in there for Before Midnight.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Who Should Win: Steve McQueen
If Matt Ran Things: Gravity was very impressive, but in terms of technicalities, there's a lot more to directing multiple sets, actors, extras, editing and so on ... as opposed to directing one or two people, editing, and leaving A LOT of special effects to a separate crew. I know Cuaron still has oversight on the effects, but McQueen's movie was more epic with many more actors and motivations to control, so I think he nudges ahead of Cuaron.
Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: It's so close but . . . . . 12 Years a Slave
Who Should Win: Her
If Jay Ran Things: For me, there are three deserving movies here - Her, Gravity and The Wolf of Wall Street. I would have nominated Before Midnight and Short Term 12 over Captain Phillips and Philomena. It's tough for me to choose, but I think Gravity is the most accomplished film of the year, while Her is my personal favorite. So, the Oscar goes to . . . . . Spike Jonze's Her.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Who Should Win: Her
If Matt Ran Things: There's not much to say about a film that challenges the concepts of love, human relationships and how we live our lives. Both films achieve this, but I simply felt like Her was more unique, whereas Dallas Buyers Club is simply a mix of Blow and Philadelphia. I'd like to see Her win but wouldn't be hurt if 12 Years wins. I think Gravity has a good chance of winning just because it will be "the big winner" of the night in most categories ... even though I don't agree with most of the wins it probably will take and the underrated All is Lost told almost the same type of story as Gravity but without the gimmicks; All is Lost is like the Ernest Hemingway version of Gravity.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: "Let it Go"
 |
| (l. to r.) Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Idina Menzel, Robert Lopez |
Who Should Win: "Let it Go"
If Matt Ran Things: No one can beat Menzel's vocals! Plus, the song lends perfectly to the film and what the film's character Elsa is going through. I would have liked to have seen Oscar Isaac and Marcus Mumford (of Mumford & Sons) at least be nominated for "Fare Thee Well (Dink's Song)" from Inside Llewyn Davis, but I guess it wasn't really considered "original" because of its origins from the 18th century English folk ballad "Fare Thee Well."
Best Adapted Screenplay
 |
| Short Term 12 |
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Who Should Win: Before Midnight
If Jay Ran Things: Destin Cretton would be nominated and win for his brilliant film, Short Term 12. Because he adapted it from a shorter version of the same movie he made before, I'm betting it would be slotted in this category.
 |
| Captain Phillips |
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: 12 Years a Slave Who Should Win: Captain Phillips
If Matt Ran Things: 12 Years was a great film that is long overdue, but Captain Phillips left me in jaw-dropping awe!
Best Original Screenplay
 |
| Her |
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: American Hustle
Who Should Win: Her
If Jay Ran Things: Spike Jonze would win for his brilliant screenplay for Her, one of my favorite films of the year. He could pull out a win if the Academy decides to reward him here since there's no chance his movie will win Best Picture.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Who Should Win: Her
If Matt Ran Things: Is Her the best story I've seen in this category? Of course! Will it win? Most likely, not. Even though the story behind Her is something the media and you and your friends have played with in passing conversation, it's still original. But ... no matter. Unfortunately, I think Dallas Buyers Club will win. Should it win for "Best ORIGINAL Screenplay?" No. Wanna know why? It's not "original" by Academy standards and certainly not by my standards -- and yet it still gets nominated! It's not considered "original" because the movie is 1) based on a true story, 2) the story was written already as a 1992 feature in The Dallas Morning News, and 3) screenwriter Craig Borten had access to the real-life Ron Woodroof's personal journals so most of the material was previously written.
Best Animated Feature
 |
| The Wind Rises |
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Frozen
Who Should Win: The Wind Rises
If Jay Ran Things: If you read my review of Hayao Miyazaki's final epic then you know I'm a fan. It really doesn't matter, though, because the blockbuster popularity of Disney's Frozen will win out. It is kind of a joke when you consider The Wind Rises, with its traditionally drawn animation, is like watching art come alive on the screen paired with a touching love story. And Frozen, even though I'm sure it has a good message, is going to win because it is more popular and accessible.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Frozen
.jpg) |
| Frozen |
Who Should Win: Frozen
If Matt Ran Things: Yes, Frozen is more than just a love story! And that's why I think it should win. Plus, you can't beat the music and the fact that both kids and adults can watch it and be pleasantly entertained. I have to say I was impressed.
Best Cinematography
 |
| Gravity |
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Gravity
Who Should Win: Gravity
If Jay Ran Things: The most talented and daring cinematographer working today, Emmanuel Lubezki, should win the Oscar for his jaw-dropping work in Gravity. All the other nominees, as talented as they are, might as well not show up.
Matt's Picks
 |
| Prisoners |
Who Should Win: Prisoners
If Matt Ran Things: Prisoners should have gotten a lot more nominations, but Gravity will win because it's the "Academy darling" this year.
 |
| 12 Years a Slave |
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts - August: Osage County
June Squibb - Nebraska
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Who Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o
If Jay Ran Things: Nyong'o is so good in her role as the abused slave girl, Patsey. She manages to upstage everyone in each scene she's in as her character desperately tries to avoid the growing menace of her master, played by Michael Fassbander and his jealous wife, played by Sarah Paulson.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Who Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o
If Matt Ran Things: I LOVE Jennifer Lawrence, who has already been given the unfortunate, pretentious title of "America's sweetheart" (by the press; the actual Lawrence, I think, would roll her eyes at the title), but this credit should be given where credit is OBVIOUSLY due! Bravo, Ms. Nyong'o!
 |
| 12 Years a Slave |
Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper - American Hustle
Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Jared Leto
Who Should Win: Michael Fassbender
If Jay Ran Things: I find it ridiculous that Jared Leto is going to win this Oscar over a performance like Fassbender's which is really terrifying and unhinged. He's just too detestable and evil for Academy voters to choose him, though.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Jared Leto
Who Should Win: Michael Fassbender
If Matt Ran Things: Sorry, there are rules to winning an Academy award. Take a particular role, and if you do well enough, you're a shoo-in! Hmmmm .... plantation slave owner .... or .... HIV-positive transgender woman? I wonder who will win?
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Amy Adams - American Hustle
 |
| Short Term 12 |
Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock - Gravity
Judi Dench - Philomena
Meryl Streep - August: Osage County
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Who Should Win: Cannot believe I'd ever say this, but . . . . . Sandra Bullock
If Jay Ran Things: Both Julie Delpy (Before Midnight) and Brie Larson (Short Term 12) would be nominated here with Larson winning. I know it is a stretch but her performance as Grace was my favorite of the year.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Who Should Win: Brie Larson (Short Term 12)
If Matt Ran Things: I'm breaking the rules and picking my own winner because ... it says "If Matt Ran Things!" Unfortunately, either Blanchett or Bullock will win. But they didn't really "wow" me! As far as I'm concerned, Brie Larson packed more emotional punch in her performance in Short Term 12 than both of those nominees combined. But it's not just that. Larson was relatable and yet not, taking the viewer into her world they think they know ... until her little world turns tables on her and the audience. Great film!
 |
| The Wolf of Wall Street |
Christian Bale - American Hustle
Bruce Dern - Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
Chweitel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
Who Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
If Jay Ran Things: Leonardo Dicaprio gives the best performance of his career as Jordan Belfort, the reprehensible, greedy, scoundrel of Martin Scorsese's epic of excess. McConaughey's performance was more "feel-good" so he will win over the Academy who loves an afflicted character who fights the odds. Also, I would have nominated Mads Mikkelson as well for his role in The Hunt. But, alas, there was no chance . . . .
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
Who Should Win: Hugh Jackman (Prisoners)
 |
| Prisoners |
If Matt Ran Things: Again, breaking the rules. It will be no surprise when McConaughey's name is called. And I would pick DiCaprio for "who should win" ... if he were nominated for the right movie (sorry, but his performance in The Great Gatsby far outweighed his role in Wolf when it comes to emotional depth and substance)! Hugh Jackman should have been nominated ... especially instead of Bruce Dern -- but, Dern gets what I call, the "sympathy" nomination/win (Dern's performance was not impressive nor mesmerizing). Jackman's role as a father blinded by vengeance far outweighs most of those listed here -- with the exception of Chweitel Ejiofor (if I had to pick from the normal nominee list, it would be Ejiofor).
 |
| Alfonso Cuaron |
David O. Russell - American Hustle
Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
Alexander Payne - Nebraska
Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese - The Wolf of Wall Street
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron
If Jay Ran Things: Look, I know some of you out there don't get it, but Cuaron's work on Gravity is the work of a master filmmaker at the top of his game. I am disappointed Spike Jonze was not nominated here for Her. I would have kicked Payne out for Jonze. Also, Richard Linklater might have found his way in there for Before Midnight.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
 |
| Steve McQueen |
If Matt Ran Things: Gravity was very impressive, but in terms of technicalities, there's a lot more to directing multiple sets, actors, extras, editing and so on ... as opposed to directing one or two people, editing, and leaving A LOT of special effects to a separate crew. I know Cuaron still has oversight on the effects, but McQueen's movie was more epic with many more actors and motivations to control, so I think he nudges ahead of Cuaron.
Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Jay's Picks
Who Will Win: It's so close but . . . . . 12 Years a Slave
Who Should Win: Her
If Jay Ran Things: For me, there are three deserving movies here - Her, Gravity and The Wolf of Wall Street. I would have nominated Before Midnight and Short Term 12 over Captain Phillips and Philomena. It's tough for me to choose, but I think Gravity is the most accomplished film of the year, while Her is my personal favorite. So, the Oscar goes to . . . . . Spike Jonze's Her.
Matt's Picks
Who Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Who Should Win: Her
If Matt Ran Things: There's not much to say about a film that challenges the concepts of love, human relationships and how we live our lives. Both films achieve this, but I simply felt like Her was more unique, whereas Dallas Buyers Club is simply a mix of Blow and Philadelphia. I'd like to see Her win but wouldn't be hurt if 12 Years wins. I think Gravity has a good chance of winning just because it will be "the big winner" of the night in most categories ... even though I don't agree with most of the wins it probably will take and the underrated All is Lost told almost the same type of story as Gravity but without the gimmicks; All is Lost is like the Ernest Hemingway version of Gravity.
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